Yes, I said it. Markets look like they want to go higher, even as they sit lower by around 1% on the day. Why? Simply put, there are a lot of negatives out there and the markets are overbought, even with that, the stock market is holding up relatively well. Let’s look at what is going on…
First, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) said today they had more exposure in the energy sector to bad loans. These were very negative comments for the entire banking sector as JPMorgan is known as one of the best banks. If they have more exposure, you can bet other banks are worse off. Next, oil fell sharply, dropping almost 5%. We have seen it in the past and now is no different. Falling crude prices hurt the stock market. Lastly, the markets have surged almost 150 points on the S&P 500 in the last two weeks.
Think about it like this. JPMorgan said they have more exposure to bad loans from the energy collapse. This means everyone does. Oil fell sharply, always a negative for stocks at these levels and the market has soared lately. With all these factors the indexes have only fallen by approximately 1% today. This is a very modest sell off and likely a signal the stock market wants to go higher.
What is the upside target for the S&P 500? The technical chart level is 2005.
Chief Market Strategist