I have traded Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) a few times since it went public in mid 2016. Each time, taking some profits. As of today, I am adding it to my strong buy watch list. Please note, I have not bought Twilio Inc yet, but am starting to look for a perfect entry price, just before the stock pops big. Below are my factors.
1. The stock has been selling off as the lockup expiration date looms. The date is December 20th, 2016. Investors are fearful that insiders will sell. Therefore, they have sold ahead of it. History shows us that it actually works in the opposite way. The bark is worse than the bite. The selling from investors, bringing the stock close to its IPO level, makes insiders not sell. Once investors see no selling after December 20th, they will rush back in.
2. End of year tax loss selling. Investors are also selling to take losses into year end in an attempt to minimize their tax bill. This is common and creates extra sell pressure in December which will vanish in January. Once January comes, beaten down plays like Twilio Inc will see a big bounce as there are no more sellers. Keep in mind, if you were going to sell, you would do it in December.
3. The stock is still a huge profit and growth story. Let’s not forget this is one of the main reasons why it ran up to $70 earlier in the year. As soon as the selling pressure abates, Twilio will pop and investors will chase.
Ultimately, I am interested in buying if either of these two conditions are met. The first is if the stock sells into gap fill at $27.25. The second is, regardless of price on the first trading day of 2017.