November 30, 2017
This is a pretty straight forward trade. The daily Transportation Index ETF $IYT jumped from $173 to $187 in three days. First, this makes it overbought for a swing trade short. Then you note the major trend line price hit today that stretches back to 2015 and the multiple technical indicators screaming overbought. Lastly, add in that this run is factoring in tax reform, which means there will be little further risk even if tax reform gets through (which is likely). This is a solid risk/reward swing trade short. I would like to see a pull back minimally to $168.00.
November 30, 2017
Workday Inc (WDAY:NASDAQ) is a leading provider of enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources. The stock recently topped out on November 27, 2017 at $116.89 a share. Since that high pivot, the stock has declined sharply. Last night, the company reported earnings and the stock is falling lower today by $2.54 to $104.00 per share. The pattern forming on the weekly chart is what we call an outside reversal pattern. This is usually a very bearish pattern that indicates further downside is possible in the coming weeks. Traders should realize the stock is short-term oversold on the daily chart already, so there could be some minor bounces or positive trading days in the stock. But please note, the weekly reversal pattern that has formed is not a sign of strength. This pattern will generally indicate more weekly chart selling down the road.
So where are the support levels for WDAY stock? There are several important support levels coming up. The first support level that I see is the 200-day moving average at $98.42. This moving average will be major daily chart support if price trades directly into the level. Should price consolidate above the 200-day moving average then that area will become minor support. In other words, watching the pattern develop is extremely important, you must see how a stock trades into a particular support level. The second major support level will be around the $95.00 area. This is where the 50-week moving average is located. This will likely be a major support level when tested as long as price comes directly into that support level. The next major support area for WDAY stock will be around the $90.50 level. This important area is where the stock broke out in May 2017. If you have been reading my work over the years than you know that prior breakout levels are often major chart support when retested. Again, it is very important to see how the stock trades into that level, the chart pattern is always critical and it can change the odds of the trade.
November 29, 2017
This morning, leading design software and services company, Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK), is trading lower by nearly 15.0 percent on the session. The decline comes after the company reported earnings and announced a restructuring plan. Traders should note that ADSK stock is now trading below its important 50-day moving average. This puts the stock in a weak technical chart position.
Often when a stock declines this sharply from a high pivot it will indicate lower prices in the coming weeks. The next major chart support level for ADSK stock is around the $96.00 level. This area is where the stock broke out in May 2017. Generally, when a stock retests its breakout level it will be defended when retested.
November 28, 2017
Oil is trading near 52 week highs. Just a couple days ago, it grazed $60/bbl, the highest level in well over a year. So why am I so bearish on the commodity and oil stocks? The simple answer comes from looking at the performance of oil stocks. Individually, you can look at Haliburton (HAL) or the ETF that tracks oil stocks, the $XLE. You would expect these stocks to be at or at least near 52 week highs with the bullish market action and oil near multi-year highs. However, that is not the case. In fact, the $XLE (Energy Fund ETF) has a very bearish chart and looks ready to break lower. In addition, Saudi Arabia is likely keeping oil up only until the Saudi Aramco IPO debuts early next year. The US is producing massive amounts of oil/natural gas as well. Even for an economy that is growing, there is too much net oil. The charts signal a bearish drop coming in oil and oil stocks. Watch for the XLE to break the below trend line for a move as low as $62.00.